Gold Rebounds, Expected to Continue Rising
Last Friday, we believed that the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut was boosted, and concerns about the situation in the Middle East heated up again, supporting gold to stop falling and rebound. Therefore, we suggested that everyone should pay attention to the support situation near $2629, which is the daily Bollinger band's middle track and the weekly MA5 moving average. If gold stands firm here, there is a chance to continue rebounding, and the upper pressure can be focused on $2640 and $2650. If it fails to hold here, it may start a consolidation above $2600.
Looking at the subsequent trend, before the US market opened, gold stabilized above the Bollinger band's middle track and the weekly MA5 moving average for the day, and repeatedly tested the support at $2631. After the gold price broke through upwards, it fell back to $2640 and stabilized to rise, reaching a maximum of $2647. When the US market opened, gold explored $2650 and encountered resistance, fell back to $2640, and continued to stabilize and rise, reaching a maximum of $2661. On Monday, gold opened and fluctuated down, temporarily trading at $2645. Overall, gold stabilized above $2629 and continued the previous rebound trend, which basically met the expectation of rising.
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Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that last week, gold rebounded for two consecutive trading days, mainly because the two factors that previously suppressed gold prices, namely the market's exclusion of the possibility of a significant rate cut in November and the alleviation of concerns about the situation in the Middle East, have improved: on the one hand, the US CPI and PPI data released on Thursday and Friday performed slightly higher than market expectations, implying a favorable inflation outlook and supporting the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November. On the other hand, Israel discussed subsequent actions against Iran and Lebanon, causing investors' concerns about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East to heat up again. However, the dollar rose to a new high in nearly two months, putting pressure on gold's rebound.
On the daily chart, gold stopped falling and rebounded above the integer position of $2600, showing a short-term trend that is biased towards fluctuation and strong, with the possibility of continuing to rebound. For the support of gold, pay attention to the daily 10-day moving average at $2643, which is also the current daily low, and the daily Bollinger band's middle track and the 5-day moving average near $2633; for the pressure of gold, pay attention to the high point of the rebound last week at $2661, followed by the highest point in the past half month at $2673, and the historical high at $2685. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages turned up from the death cross, the MACD indicator's death cross slowed down significantly, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross and went up, and the RSI indicator turned up significantly after the death cross and then slightly down, showing that gold has signs of continuing to rise after a short-term adjustment.
For gold intraday reference: The market has strengthened its bet on the Federal Reserve's rate cut, and concerns about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East support the rise in gold prices. However, the dollar is at a high level in nearly two months, and the rise in gold prices is temporarily limited. It is suggested to pay attention to the strength of the fall, mainly do long at low levels, pay attention to the support at $2643, followed by $2633, and the pressure at $2661, followed by $2673 and $2685.