Gold Inches Up Amid Lingering Safe-Haven Sentiment: Bond Asia
According to a survey by S&P Global Platts on OPEC+, the suspension of Libya's oil production and the improvement of compliance by Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, led to a decrease of about 500,000 barrels per day in OPEC+'s total output in September. The survey indicates that the total output of the OPEC+ alliance last month was 40.23 million barrels per day, a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day compared to August. The survey also shows that the oil production of OPEC+ countries still exceeded the collective target under the agreement, albeit to a lesser extent. According to Platts' estimates, the daily production of oil-producing countries with output caps last month was still 232,000 barrels above the total quota, while in August, the daily production was 327,000 barrels above the quota. The political deadlock that led to the shutdown of Libya's production in September, along with the reduction of supplies from Iraq, the largest oil overproducer in the OPEC+ agreement, were the main drivers of the decline in OPEC+ oil production last month.
Additionally, the European Central Bank may advance global monetary easing policies in the coming week, with policymakers having almost ruled out the possibility of a rate cut just a month ago. Economists believe that the third 25 basis point rate cut in this cycle may signal that officials will accelerate more enduring actions to alleviate the impact of long-term high borrowing costs in the Eurozone on economic growth, which is currently lagging. A meeting will be held near the capital of Slovenia on Thursday, and during the subsequent press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde may be asked about the future path of further rate cuts and what significant changes have occurred compared to the September meeting. With the interval between decisions being shorter than usual, at only five weeks, and not much new data, officials seem to have abandoned their recent cautious attitude towards lingering inflationary pressures, mainly in response to survey data pointing to a contraction in the private sector economy. Such reports have affected financial markets and have stimulated the widely anticipated momentum for a rate cut after policymakers essentially supported betting on a change.
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Data to watch today includes the US September New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation and the US September New York Fed 3-year inflation expectation.
Gold/USD
Last Friday, gold fluctuated and rose, once regaining the 2660 mark, and the exchange rate is currently trading near 2660. In addition to the persistent Middle East tensions stimulating a risk-averse sentiment that continues to support safe-haven gold, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November also provided some support for gold. However, the cooling expectations of further substantial rate cuts by the Fed limited the rebound space for gold. Today, pay attention to the pressure near 2670, with support near 2650.
USD/JPY
Last Friday, the USD/JPY fluctuated and rose, with a small daily gain, and the exchange rate is currently trading near 149.30. In addition to short covering providing some support for the exchange rate, the US Dollar Index also rose due to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and good CPI data further cooling expectations of further substantial rate cuts by the Fed, which was an important factor supporting the exchange rate's climb. However, expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan limited the rebound space for the exchange rate. Today, pay attention to the pressure near 150.00, with support near 148.50.
USD/CAD
Last Friday, the USD/CAD fluctuated and rose, hitting a 9-week high, and the exchange rate is currently trading near 1.3770. In addition to the US Dollar Index rebounding under the support of cooling expectations of further substantial rate cuts by the Fed, providing strong support for the exchange rate, expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in October also continued to provide some support for the exchange rate. In addition, the decline in oil prices also provided some support for the exchange rate. Today, pay attention to the pressure near 1.3850, with support near 1.3700.