Gold Braces for Black Friday Crash

It's been a long time since we've seen Black Friday, do you remember the speed at which gold fell during the previous Black Friday? Today will once again bring back the glory of Black Friday, so be prepared for a sharp drop in gold prices.

The U.S. CPI data was released, and all the figures exceeded expectations, which is bearish for gold, indicating that inflation has not started to回调, but has rebounded after the interest rate cut, which is a relatively bearish data for gold. However, gold did not start to fall after the data was released, but instead rose. How to say this, it's a habit, these traders in the market always have their own unique understanding of the data, and I don't know whether it's to guide market investors or their thinking is so different.

So let's not look at whether the market's expectations of interest rate cuts have changed after yesterday's CPI data. After the September interest rate decision, the dot plot showed that there will be a 75-100 basis point interest rate cut this year, and then gold went north all the way, and finally rose to 2685 under the promotion of geopolitical conflicts. So what is the market's expectation now? Is it that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the next November interest rate decision or not cut interest rates? Compared with the September interest rate decision, there is no doubt that the expectation of interest rate cuts has weakened, so gold must not be able to return to its original high position now.

As for yesterday's initial jobless claims, which were unexpectedly low for a year, but last week's non-farm employment data showed that U.S. employment has indeed improved significantly, so although this time the initial jobless claims were unexpectedly low, it does not indicate a deterioration in the employment situation, so it cannot increase the expectation of interest rate cuts.

At the 4-hour level, the neckline of the current top pattern M-top has been broken by the rising big Yang line entity, so the current M-top pattern is invalid, and it shows a very strong upward momentum. The volume has increased, and the Yang line entity has increased, showing an accelerated upward trend, so it may rise in the short term. Although the MACD momentum column is gradually increasing, the fast and slow lines are still in the negative area below the zero axis, and the overall rhythm of gold is still going south. Waiting for gold to fall again and break through the neckline will start the next round of decline. The upward momentum during the day will not be very strong. According to the 4-hour level small round bottom, the upward momentum should be around 2644. After gold rises, observe the 2635 support during the day. If it breaks through, you can enter the market to go short and take a medium line, with a target of 2550!

In summary, although the upward momentum of gold is very strong at present, and there are obvious upward signals on the disk, it is best to be more in the short term. However, the overall trend is still downward, so pay attention to the strong support of 2635 during the day. After breaking through, a large decline will start.